1.0
Introduction:
In late December 2006, the author was contacted by two business men
(Peter & Jeff) who wished to manufacture electrical generators,
based on the Magneto-Thermodynamic generation (MTG) principle (see
companion paper entitled Magneto-Thermodynamics, parts 1, 2, & 3).
Unfortunately, the parties involved were unable to reach a mutually
acceptable agreement, however oil markets did react swiftly and
strongly to the potential competition. Starting on January 3rd, as
the parties entered into negotiations, during one of the coldest
winters in recent history, the benchmark price for light sweet crude
oil suddenly dropped by nearly 16% in just 9 trading sessions, then
started rising when it became apparent the parties would be unable
to reach an agreement.
As the trading charts and supporting documentation (below) will illustrate, crude oil market price movements were closely correlated with events surrounding the authors unsuccessful negotiation. This tight correlation graphically demonstrates the level of anxiety major oil market participants experience, at the prospect of competition from MTG technology.
1.1
Market dynamics:
For those readers who are unfamiliar with commodity market trading,
this section is included as a short tutorial on market dynamics.
Most people understand that a market (such as crude oil) moves up or down in response to changing realities in the physical environment. For instance political instability in a major producing nation will cause the price to rise, and conversely, large inventories in a consuming nation will cause the price to fall. Less understood or appreciated are the actual timing and mechanisms of price fluctuation. One might assume that market price reacts to events as they unfold, and if no prior information is available this is exactly what happens. However, if information is available prior to the actual event, then market price reacts based on that knowledge, even though the event has yet to take place. This may seem counter intuitive, but consider the following example. Suppose you own 100 shares of XYZ corporation, and the CEO of XYZ corporation holds a press conference, during which he announces that sales of XYZ products are expected to decline next year. What are you going to do? Will you wait until next year to sell your shares in XYZ corporation, or will you sell them now? Of course you'll sell now, because you don't want to be the last person to sell, and thereby take a loss on your investment. In other words, the price of XYZ shares will start to drop the very moment the announcement is made (by the CEO), even though the event (decline in sales) wont take place for many months. In economics, this is known as the "Efficient Market Theory" and is stated as follows: "Prices fully reflect all known information". Next, markets are NOT homogenous. There are a few major participants, and many thousands of minor participants. Generally, the major participants have a legitimate business interest in the commodity being traded, rather than a purely speculative interest. For instance, a breakfast cereal manufacture has a very real interest in corn and wheat commodity market prices. Therefore a small number of major participants might represent 80% of trading activity, while the thousands of minor participants may account for only 20% of trading activity. Suppose a few major participants have knowledge of an event that will significantly impact market pricing at some future date. What will happen? Since these few major participants are, by virtue of their size, capable of creating significant price movements, market valuation will quickly change for little or no apparent cause. And all the smaller participants will be caught off guard, wondering "what happened!!!". To summarize:
1.2.1
The direct evidence:
Chart 1 (below) shows trading activity on the March 2007 NYMEX crude
oil contract from October 2, 2006, through February 2, 2007.
Chart 1
As can be seen, for three consecutive months (until January 3,
2007), trading activity was confined to a narrow price range, seldom
trading above $65.00 or below $62.00 a barrel. The next chart
(below), is an expanded and annotated version of the last portion of
chart 1.
Chart 2
Chart 2 shows the rapid and unexpected decline in crude oil prices,
as the parties entered into negotiations starting on January 2,
2007. Followed by a slower rise, starting January 17, 2007 as it
became increasingly apparent the parties would not be able to reach
an agreement. These annotations clearly illustrate that
fluctuations in market pricing correlate rather precisely with key
events during negotiations. And while an agreement to commercialize
MTG technology would not result in immediate displacement of oil and
gas as dominate energy sources. Such is the nature of market
dynamics (see section 1.1) and the potential of MTG, that major
market participants reacted swiftly and decisively.
The sequence of events shown in chart 2, raises several interesting ancillary questions. For instance, how did these major market participants obtain what was supposed to be confidential information, known only to the negotiating parties? It would seem industrial espionage is alive and well in America, and has little regard for laws against wire tapping, or email interception. The next question is more subtle. How did these major market participants know that negotiations were in progress? Apparently surveillance of the author is an ongoing endeavor. A review of website access logs will substantiate that many of these major participants visit this website on a regular basis. Click Here to view list of energy related visitors to this website (link opens in a new browser window). Click Here to view list of foreign government visitors to this website (link opens in a new browser window). One final question is deserving of contemplation. How can these major market participants know that MTG technology will (when commercialized) have such a dramatic impact on energy markets, or for that matter, will even work? Perhaps the best way to answer this question, is to turn it inside out. In other words, why would these major market participants react so swiftly and decisively, without compelling evidence to support their actions? The petroleum industry is conservatively estimated at $500,000,000,000 dollars per year (wholesale). The industry retains some of the best scientists and engineers available at any price. One may safely conclude these scientists and engineers have told their employers that MTG represents a very real threat to the continuing dominance of petroleum as the worlds leading energy source.
1.2.2
The indirect evidence:
During the authors unsuccessful negotiations, certain indirect
indications of concern on the part of major market participants were
also observed. In order to make sense of these indirect
indications, the reader must have an understanding of exactly where
America obtains its imported oil. Chart 3 (below) shows typical US
oil imports by country of origin.
Chart 3 - courtesy US Department of Energy (DoE)
As chart 3 illustrates, nearly 50% of American imports are derived
from just three producers: Canada, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia. These
nations will suffer the largest and most immediate impact, if MTG is
commercialized. Along with these nations, we can also expect the
American government to show concern, since a large segment of its
revenue is derived from the (hidden) taxation of petroleum. The
table (below) shows selected website visitors, starting on January
3, 2007, and ending on January 27, 2007. A 24 day period coinciding
with the negotiation period shown in Chart 2 (above).
Notes: 1. US Army, Tobyhanna Depot, C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance). Please note the six visits from Bank of Canada (Canadian central bank), with the last visit on January 17. Compare this last date with Chart 2 (above). Also note the four visits from Saudi Arabia and Saudi owned business interests. The heavy equipment companies (Caterpillar and United Technologies) derive a significant portion of their profits from manufacture of engines that use oil as their energy source. The US and UK military visits also lend credence to an atmosphere of apprehension over the potential demise of oil as a strategic energy source (vis-a-vis Iraq), and as a continuing source of tax revenue. The visit from Belarus is a bit puzzling, until one remembers that Belarus and Russia were having a serious disagreement over pipeline right-of-ways and energy pricing during this time frame. No doubt there were other petroleum related visitors during this period, however they had the foresight to use untraceable internet IP addresses. Finally, there was one further visit from the Bank of Canada, on February 12, 2007. A day when the price of oil dropped by $2.00 a barrel from the previous days closing price. To put these visitations in perspective, the reader should remember this is NOT a high profile website, and on average receives just 30 to 40 visitors per day. All the more remarkable that it should attract so many prestigious visitors in such a short period of time.
1.2.3
Coincidence or Consequence:
The argument can be made that what has been presented in sections
1.2.1 & 1.2.2 (above), amounts to nothing more than mere
coincidence. And of course, that is a possibility. Therefore we
must ask, what is the probability that evidence presented herein, is
just a quirk of fate? In order to make that determination, it is
necessary to assign a probability to each of the major events,
outlined in sections 1.2.1 & 1.2.2. The key events are:
10 x 10 x 10 x 10 x 10 = 100,000:1 (one chance in one hundred thousand). If you assume one chance in fifty (50:1) for each of these five events, the probability rises to 312,500,000:1 (approximately one chance in three hundred million). While coincidence can not be ruled out, the probability of simple happenstance is, to say the least, remote.
1.3.1
Summary:
That Magneto-Thermodynamic generation (MTG) technology will, if
commercialized, quickly displace petroleum as the dominate energy
source, is no longer subject to much debate or even reasonable
doubt. The major industry participants have through their actions,
revealed the future they foresee. And the consiquences of that
vision are documented herein, for all to see. The only remaining
question is how that displacement will transpire...
End
Anatomy of a Market Collapse
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