Christian Davenport and Allan Stam
Rwanda
ICTR
[2009] Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo in
the Propaganda System by Edward S. Herman and David Peterson
Separately, U.S. academics Christian Davenport and Allan Stam estimated
that more than one million deaths occurred in Rwanda from April through July
1994,1 concluding that the
“majority of victims were likely Hutu and not Tutsi.” Initially sponsored by the
ICTR, but later dropped by it, the Davenport-Stam work
shows convincingly that the theaters where the killing was greatest correlated
with spikes in RPF activity (i.e., with RFP “surges,” in their terminology), as
a series of RPF advances, particularly in the month of April 1994, created
roving patterns of killing. In fact, they describe at least seven distinct
“surges” by the RFP (e.g., “they surged forward from the North downward into the
Northwest and middle-eastern part of the country”), and every time, an RPF
“surge” was accompanied by serious local bloodbaths.
Then, in late 2009, Davenport-Stam reported what they called the “most shocking
result” of their research to date: “The killings in the zone controlled by the
FAR [i.e., the Hutu-controlled Armed Forces of Rwanda] seemed to escalate as the
RPF moved into the country and acquired more territory. When the RPF advanced,
large-scale killings escalated. When the RPF stopped, large-scale killings
largely decreased.”3
With these facts, Davenport-Stam
appeared to link the mass killings of 1994 to RPF actions. This work also
suggests that the mass killings were not directed against the Tutsi population.
Moreover, a number of observers, as well as participants in the events of 1994,
claim that the great majority of deaths were Hutu, with some estimates as high
as two million.4
Yet Davenport-Stam shy away from
asserting the most important lesson of their work: not only that the majority of
killings took place in those theaters where the RPF “surged,” but also that the
RPF was the only well-organized killing force within Rwanda in 1994, and the
only one that planned a major military offensive.5
Clearly, the chief responsibility for Rwandan political violence belonged to the
RPF, and not to the ousted coalition government, the FAR, or any Hutu-related
group. But Davenport-Stam are inconsistent on the question of likely
perpetrators, with their evidence of probable RPF responsibility contradicted by
assertions of primary responsibility on the part of the FAR.6
In short, their work does not break
away from the mainstream camp, overall. However, they do acknowledge that forms
of political violence took place, other than a straightforward Hutu “genocide”
against the minority Tutsi—in itself, a rarity in Western circles. As with the
suppressed Gersony report, the Davenport-Stam findings caused great dismay at
the United Nations, not to mention in Washington and Kigali. Davenport and Stam
themselves have been under attack and in retreat since they were expelled from
Rwanda in November 2003, upon first reporting that the “majority of the victims
of 1994 were of the same ethnicity as the government in power” and have been
barred from entering the country ever since.7
The established narrative’s 800,000 or more largely Tutsi deaths resulting from
a “preprogrammed genocide” committed by “Hutu Power” appears to have no basis in
any facts, beyond the early claims by Kagame’s RPF and its politically motivated
Western sponsors and propagandists.
- Christian Davenport and
Allan Stam,
Rwandan Political Violence in Space and Time, unpublished
manuscript, 2004 (available at
Christian Davenport’s personal website, “Project
Writings“). For all of Rwanda from April through July 1994, these
authors report a total of 1,063,336 deaths (28), based on their analysis of
a minimum of eight different mortality estimates for the relevant period.
- Ibid., see esp. 30-33.
- Christian Davenport and
Allan C. Stam, “What
Really Happened in Rwanda?“ Miller-McCune, October 6, 2009.
- In 1999, former RPF
military officer Christophe Hakizimana submitted a letter to the UN
Commission of Inquiry into the Actions of the United Nations during the 1994
Genocide in Rwanda (S/1999/1257).
In his letter, which detailed the RPF’s military strategy from 1990 on,
Hakizimana claimed that the RPF was responsible for killing as many as two
million Hutu in Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, and he informed
the Commission that by indicting Hutu, the ICTR was focusing on the wrong
side in the conflict. We base this on personal communications with the
international criminal lawyer Christopher Black of Toronto, who, since 2000,
has served as defense counsel before the ICTR on behalf of the Hutu General
Augustin Nindiliyimana, a former Chief of Staff of the Rwanda Gendarmerie
(or National Police).
- For a more critical
discussion of these issues, see Stam, “Coming
to a New Understanding of the Rwanda Genocide,” and our discussion of
this above.
- See Davenport and Stam,
Rwandan Political Violence in Space and Time, 2004. Davenport-Stam
organize their work according to three “jurisdictions” that we find deeply
flawed: Namely, territory controlled by the Rwandan government and army, by
the Rwandan Patriotic Front, and territory that falls along the lines of
battle between the two. They write that “the actor with the greatest
monopoly of coercion within a specific locale is generally held to be
responsible for violent behavior in that locale” (25). (Also see Figure 1,
“1994 Rwandan Political Violence: Total Deaths by Troop Control,” 29.) On
the basis of this problematic assumption, Davenport-Stam contend that as
“the majority of deaths took place within areas under the control of [the
Rwandan government and army]—totaling 891, 295,” the government and army are
responsible for these deaths, which “could be classified” as genocide, among
other possible crimes (28). But as the RPF in fact moved rapidly and
decisively from battlefield success to battlefield success to control of the
entire country, it is frankly counterintuitive to treat the badly
out-gunned, out-maneuvered, and ultimately routed government forces as in
control of anything. On the contrary, the chief responsibility for Rwandan
political violence in 1994 lay with the RPF and its project of driving the
coalition government from power and seizing the Rwandan state.
- Davenport and Stam, “What
Really Happened in Rwanda?“