This new paper Advancing Paternal Age and Autism is I believe the first time we have hard scientific proof that autism spectrum disorder in British kids has increased 1200 percent since mid 1980s. Previously this huge increase has been fobbed off as "better diagnosis" and "greater awareness" as the government et al claim.
This paper proves it is a real increase. It also confirms the problem is international and backs up the reported figures from the US and other countries. The diagnoses were in the past 6 years when the subjects were at age 17 and when the most recent classification and diagnostic standards were used and diagnosis was according to the current International Classification of Disease 10th edition and not those used in the 1980s.
And remember the very recently reported paper by British scientist Baird found ASD was now 1 in 100 in British kids.
The new paper proves the incidence of ASD is 12 times less in early to mid-1980 than it is in the UK now of 1 in 100. The papers shows the rate as 8.4 per 10,000 which is 1 in 1200:
"The risk of ASD was 8.4 cases per 10 000 persons (319 cases) among all individuals in the cohort who were assessed by the draft board, 8.3 cases per 10 000 persons (110 cases) in the smaller subset used for the primary analysis, and 6.5 cases per 10 000 persons (208 cases) in the smaller subset used for the sensitivity analysis. The risk is somewhat lower in the latter subset because paternal age data were more likely to be missing for ASD than non-ASD cohort members (see the “Methods” section)."So the questions people should be asking are
See: [Sept 2006] Letter to editor re: FATHERS OVER 40 ARE 6 TIMES AS LIKELY TO HAVE AN AUTISTIC CHILD